A new analysis from the University of Maryland concludes that the world must source half of its energy from renewables by 2060 to meet the temperature targets set by the Paris Climate Agreement. The finding emerges from a book-length study that models future climate scenarios based on current pledges and potential mitigation pathways.
The Paris Agreement, drafted in December 2015 and opened for signature in 2016, has been signed by 194 countries, with 127 ratifying it as of December 2016. It represents the first broad international accord on climate change, including participation from the United States. The core objective is to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
Each signatory submitted an intended nationally determined contribution (INDC), outlining its planned actions to reduce emissions. Most of these plans emphasize shifting toward non-carbon-emitting renewable energy sources, but the specifics vary by country.
To test whether the Paris goals are achievable, researchers at the University of Maryland developed an empirical climate model that ingests large amounts of observational data to forecast temperatures through 2100. Timothy Canty, a research professor in atmospheric and oceanic science, told Phys.org that the model uses massive datasets to project future conditions.
The findings are published in a book titled Paris Climate Agreement: Beacon of Hope. The authors argue that the 2-degree limit is possible, but only under specific conditions. They use a scenario called RCP 4.5, which assumes that greenhouse gas emissions will peak soon and then decline within a few decades.
“Our research shows that if the Paris Climate Agreement is met, it will put us on the RCP 4.5 pathway, but this can only happen if two important things occur,” said co-author Walter Tribett. “One, all conditional and unconditional INDCs must be met. Two, the mitigation of greenhouse gases needed to meet the Paris goal must be propagated out to 2060.”
The current INDCs extend only to 2030. The authors stress that nations must extend their commitments beyond that horizon. “To achieve RCP 4.5, half of the world’s global energy must come from renewable sources by year 2060,” said co-author Brian Bennett.
The transition would be a major undertaking, requiring coordinated effort from both developed and developing nations. “This will require large-scale transfer of technology and capital from the developed to the developing world,” noted co-author Ross Salawitch. “And at the same time this is happening, the developed world must reduce its own dependence on fossil fuels — not a little bit, but massively — by 2060.”
The research underscores the gap between current pledges and the long-term action needed to stabilize the climate. While the 2060 target is ambitious, the authors maintain it is achievable if nations act now and extend their commitments beyond the next decade.
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